London School of Economics
Institute for Qualitative and Multi-Method Research, Syracuse University
Bayesian Process Tracing Module
View video here
Read information about IQMR summer program here
DV460/560: Bayesian Reasoning for Qualitative Social Science
A modern approach to case study inference
The way we intuitively approach qualitative case research is similar to how we read detective novels. We consider various different hypotheses to explain what occurred—whether the emergence of democracy in South Africa, or the death of Samuel Ratchett on the Orient Express—drawing on the literature we have read (e.g. theories of regime change, or other Agatha Christie mysteries) and any salient previous experiences we have had. As we gather evidence and discover new clues, we continually update our beliefs about which hypothesis provides the best explanation—or we may introduce a new alternative that occurs to us along the way.
Bayesianism provides a natural framework that is both logically rigorous and grounded in common sense, that governs how we should revise our degree of belief in the truth of a hypothesis—e.g., "mobilisation from below drove democratization in South Africa by altering economic elites’ regime preferences," (Wood 2001), or "a lone gangster sneaked onboard the train and killed Ratchett as revenge for being swindled"—given our relevant prior knowledge and new information that we obtain during our investigation. Bayesianism is enjoying a revival across many fields, and it offers a powerful tool for improving inference and analytic transparency in qualitative research.
This course introduces basic principles of Bayesian reasoning with the goal of helping us leverage our common-sense understandings of inference and hone our intuition when conducting causal analysis with qualitative evidence. We will examine the foundations of Bayesian probability as well as concrete applications to single case studies, comparative case studies, comparative historical analysis, and multi-methods research. Students will practice applying Bayesian reasoning to assess the strength and quality of inferences in published studies, drawing on exemplars of qualitative research from various fields of socio-political analysis including development studies, comparative politics, international relations, and policy analysis. Students will also apply Bayesian principles to various aspects of their own dissertation research in progress—e.g., generating or revising hypotheses, selecting cases, identifying weaknesses in salient background literature, and assessing the inferential weight of available evidence.
DV449: Political Economy of Development II
Building upon the theoretical material and applications introduced in Political Economy of Development I, this course emphasizes politics on the ground in developing countries. Who gets the policies they want, why, when, and how? Throughout, we pay close attention to actors, interests, institutions, and power. Understanding the politics of policymaking is critical for development specialists and policy practitioners. Policies recommended by technical experts are not always politically feasible, and progress may require implementing second-best solutions. Moreover, approaches that work in one case may not work in another. Drawing on real-world examples from a range of policy domains including taxation and social spending, we discuss strategies for enacting pro-development reforms that might otherwise be politically infeasible. The course also introduce students to ket issues in conceptualization and measurement by examining indices and indicators of governance and democracy that are widely used by development practitioners.
This course includes various small group exercises and case simulations in which students are assigned to roles (e.g. government, opposition party, labor union) and engage in policy negotiations. Examples include:
-
Measuring Democracy: An In-Class Exercise.
-
Case Simulation: Market Reform in Bolivia
-
Case Simulation: Mining Taxation in Zambia
The course also assigns a group "Development Policy Application" project that requires substantial outside research. Examples from past years include:
-
The Environmental Challenge
Your task is to design an initiative to address a major environmental problem in a developing country of your choice. Your initiative must be fully financed through the country’s own budget, not through international aid or donor funds. The crux of your task is to ensure that your proposal is politically feasible, taking into account the key institutions and actors in your country and thinking about their interests, the ways in which they are able to influence policymaking, and how the design of your initiative may either activate or neutralize opposition or support from different actors.
-
Overcoming Obstacles to Rural Development
You have been hired by a consortium of international aid agencies to develop a rural development strategy for the country of your choice. The consortium recognizes that even the best designed policy will not be successful unless it takes into account constraints imposed by the institutional and political environment. Your task will consist of two interrelated components. First, you will identify a policy you want to promote. Second, and most importantly for this assignment, you will devise a plan for enacting and/or implementing your policy that takes into account the intitutional and political ostacles you expect to encounter.
DV441: Development Policy and Management
This course explores why governments and organisations pursue the development policies they do. When experts debate development policy, attention usually focuses on what the relevant actors should be doing: Which policies should the leaders of developing countries be adopting (or discarding) to stimulate growth and reduce poverty? What kinds of strategies should policymakers in the industrialised world be implementing to help poorer countries develop? Much of the time, however, the people who hold positions of power in developing countries do not do what outsiders say they should. Instead, they choose policies that seem misguided at best. This course examines the incentives that guide the making and management of development policy in the real world. Even where a developmentally-optimal policy is clear, politically constrained actors do not always have incentives to choose it. Leaders, even dictators, face pressures of all kinds, domestic as well as international, that limit what they can do. Our task is to understand where these pressures come from and how they interact to produce the policies we see government and organisations in today’s world actually choosing.
DV4B3: MPA Capstone Project
Second-year MPA students are assigned to small groups to work on a year-long, real-world public-policy project in collaboration with an international organization, government agency, NGO, or private company. I have supervised projects in conjunction with:
-
DIE (German Development Institute)
"Domestic Resource Mobilization: Local Taxation in Asia"
"Fighting Illicit Financial Flows: What Role for Developing Countries?"
-
Gates Foundation
"Improving Adoption and Usage of Digital Financial Services by Women in Developing Countries"
-
Unicef
Job apprenticeship programs for youth in developing countries
-
UK Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)
The role of international finance in the agricultural sector and domestic food security
DV4B4: MPA Dissertation
Seminars provide academic and practical guidance on developing a research topic and question, designing an analytical framework, structuring and presenting policy analysis, and writing policy recommendations.
DV410: Research Design and Dissertation in Development (MSc)
The course introduces students to basic social research methods widely used in development research. The objective is to enable students to conduct independent research, to assess the methods used to generate data, and to critically assess the quality and validity of research analysis and findings in development research and policy.
DV500: Research Seminar in Development Studies (MPhil/PhD)
This seminar is designed as a forum for discussing theoretical and methodological issues in Development Studies research. Modules are organized around broad methodological issues (e.g. research design, case studies, causal inference) and presentations of research.
MY530: Advanced Qualitative Methods
This workshop introduces participants to the state-of-the-art on process tracing methodology. We begin by elaborating the basic ideas behind process tracing as a method for assessing causal explanations for a single case of interest. We discuss best practices and examples of good process tracing, and we examine the Bayesian foundations of causal inference in case studies and qualitative research more generally. The sessionsl include online worksheets and group exercises designed to help participants learn and apply current process-tracing techniques.
Graduate Summer Courses and Professional Conference Short Courses on Process Tracing
Syracuse Institute for Qualitative and Multi-Method Research (IQMR)
American Political Science Association (APSA)
Political Studies Association (PSA)
DV560 Resources
Week 1 lecture, part I