European University Institute
Curriculum Vitae, September 2025
Appointments
Chair in Political and Social Sciences, European University Institute. September 2025 to present.
Associate Professor, London School of Economics. Department of International Development; Affiliate: Department of
Government. July 2018-August 2025.
Mellon Foundation Fellow, Stanford University. Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (CASBS). Sept. 2017-June 2018.
Assistant Professor, London School of Economics. Department of International Development; Affiliate: Department of
Government. Sept. 2011-July 2018.
Visiting Fellow, University of California, Berkeley. Center for Latin American Studies. Spring-Summer 2011.
Visiting Fellow, University of Notre Dame. Kellogg Institute. Fall 2010.
Hewlett Fellow, Stanford University. Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). Sept. 2009-
June 2010.
Education
Ph.D., University of California, Berkeley. Political Science.
M.A., Stanford University. Latin American Studies.
M.S., Stanford University. Physics.
A.B., Harvard University. Physics. Summa Cum Laude, Phi Beta Kappa.
Books
Social Inquiry and Bayesian Inference: Rethinking Qualitative Research, with A.E. Charman (UC Berkeley).
Strategies for Social Inquiry series, Cambridge University Press, 2022.
Private Wealth and Public Revenue in Latin America: Business Power and Tax Politics. New York: Cambridge
University Press, 2015. Donna Lee Van Cott Award for best book on Latin American political institutions, Latin
American Studies Association.
Articles
“Bayesian reasoning for qualitative replication analysis: Examples from climate politics,” with A.E. Charman (UC
Berkeley). Political Science Research and Methods 2025. doi:10.1017/psrm.2025.16
“Understanding Bayesianism: Fundamentals for Process Tracers,” with Andrew Bennett (Georgetown) and A.E.
Charman (UC Berkeley). Political Analysis 30 (2) 298–305, 2021.
“A Dialogue with the Data: The Bayesian Foundations of Iterative Research in Qualitative Social Science,” with A.E.
Charman (UC Berkeley). Perspectives on Politics 17 (1) 154–167, 2019.
“Explicit Bayesian Analysis for Process Tracing,” with A.E. Charman (UC Berkeley). Political Analysis 25 (3) 363–380,
2017.
Sage Best Paper Award, Qualitative and Multi-Method Research Section, American Political Science
Association (2017).
“Redistribution under the Right in Latin America: Electoral Competition and Organized Actors in Policymaking,” with
Candelaria Garay (Harvard). Comparative Political Studies 50 (14) 1871–1906, 2017.
Economics and Politics Section Best Article Prize, Latin American Studies Association (2019).
“Top Income Shares, Business Profits, and Effective Tax Rates in Contemporary Chile,” with Michel Jorratt, Review of
Income and Wealth 62 S120–S144, 2016.
Impact Case Study for the 2021 UK Research Excellence Framework assessment process.
“Structural Power in Comparative Political Economy: Perspectives from Policy Formulation in Latin America,”
Business and Politics 17 (3) 411–442, 2015.
Spanish translation published in F. González and A. Madariaga (eds.) La Constitución Social, Política y Moral de la
Economía Chilena, Santiago, RIL Editores, 2018.
“Going Where the Money Is: Strategies for Taxing Economic Elites in Unequal Democracies.” World Development 47:
42–57, 2013.
“Business Power and Protest: Argentina’s 2008 Agricultural Producers’ Protest in Comparative Context.” Studies in
Comparative International Development 46: 424–453, 2011.
“Business Power and Tax Reform: Taxing Income and Profits in Chile and Argentina.” Latin American Politics &
Society 52(2) 51–71, 2010.
Book Chapters
“Reliability of Inference: Analogs of Replication in Qualitative Research,” with A.E. Charman (UC Berkeley). In The
Production of Knowledge: Enhancing Progress in Social Science, Eds. Colin Elman, John Gerring, and James
Mahoney, CambridgeUniversity Press, 2020.
“Taxing Latin America’s Economic Elites,” in Gustavo Flores-Macías, ed., The Politics of Taxation in Latin America.
Cambridge University Press, 2019.
“The Political Economy of Progressive Tax Reform in Chile,” Chapter 1 in James Mahon, Marcelo Bergman, and
Cynthia Arnson, Eds., Progressive Tax Reform and Equality in Latin America, Woodrow Wilson International Center
for Scholars, 2015.
Spanish translation published in Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia.
Symposium Contributions
“Bayesian Reflections,” in Symposium on Social Inquiry and Bayesian Inference. Qualitative and Multi-Method
Research: APSSection Publication 21(2), 2023.
“A Bayesian Perspective on Theory-Blind Data Collection,” in Symposium: Authors Meet Critics—Veil of Ignorance
Process Tracing. Qualitative and Multi-Method Research: APSA Section Publication 18(2):30-35, 2020.
“Comparative Methods and Process Tracing,” with Andrew Bennett and Hillel Soifer. Perspectives on Politics. 2020.
Full report for the APSA-QMMR Qualitative Transparency Deliberations available at
https://ssrn.com/abstract=3333405
“Reflections on Analytic Transparency in Process Tracing Research,” in Symposium: Transparency in Qualitative and
Multi-Method Research. Qualitative and Multi-Method Research: APSA Section Publication 13 (1), Spring 2015.
Awards and Grants
David Collier Mid-Career Achievement Award, American Political Science Association, Qualitative and Multi-Method
Research Section. June 2024.
LSE Excellence in Education Awards. July 2023 and July 2019.
Nominated for LSE Student Union Awards: Outstanding Teacher, July 2024 & 2025; Inspirational Teaching, May
2020; Sharing Subject Knowledge, May 2020.
REF Research Environment Funds, LSE, UK. To support book workshop, Social Inquiry and Bayesian Inference.
May 2020.
Economics and Politics Section Best Article Prize, Latin American Studies Association. 2019.
Santander Travel Grants, LSE, UK. To support research on book project with co-author in Berkeley, California, Spring
2016, Dec. 2016, Spring 2017.
Sage Best Paper Award, Qualitative and Multi-Method Research Section, American Political Science Association.
June 2017.
Donna Lee Van Cott Award for best book on Latin American political institutions, Latin American Studies Association,
2016.
International Center for Tax and Development (ICTD), Sussex, UK. Grants to support tax politics research in Chile,
2011, 2012, and 2014. Grant to support research on top income shares and effective tax rates in Chile (with Michel
Jorratt), 2012-2013.
Phi Beta Kappa Graduate Scholarship. Northern California Association. Summer 2007.
Fulbright-Hays Doctoral Dissertation Research Award. Seven months in Argentina, five months in Bolivia. April
2006–March 2007.
Social Science Research Council (SSRC) International Dissertation Research Fellowship. Seven months in Chile.
Aug. 2005-Feb. 2006.
US Department of Education Foreign Language and Area Studies Grant (FLAS). Six weeks of instruction in technical
Spanish related to public finance, Argentina. July-Aug. 2004.
Conference and Workshop Participation (since 2020)
Chair and Discussant, “Qualitative Bayesian Reasoning in Practice,” APSA, Vancouver, Sept 9-14.
Presenter, “Applying Bayesian Reasoning to the SARS-CoV-2 Origins Debate.” APSA, Vancouver, Sept 9-14.
Chair, “Latin American Political Economy in Comparative Perspective,” APSA, Vancouver, Sept 9-14.
Presenter, “Bayesian Qualitative Replication Analysis: Applications to Climate Change Politics,” MPSA. April 3-6,
2025.
Discussant, “Bayesian Reasoning in Practice: Inference with Qualitative Evidence” and “Qualitative and Multi-Method
Research,” MPSA. April 3-6, 2025.
Invited participant, “Potential Value of Information and Data Working Group,” Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico, April 2-
3, 2024.
Discussant, “The Promise of Universalism Deferred: Political Economy of Social Policy in 21st Century Latin America,”
by Juan Ferre. Book workshop, Princeton University, March 1, 2024.
Invited participant, “The Political Economy of the Inflation Reduction Act,” UC Santa Barbara. April 14, 2023 and Feb.
23, 2024.
Organizer, Chair, and Discussant, “European States and Political Parties: Insights from Bayesian Case Studies.”
APSA, Los Angeles, Aug 31-Sept 3, 2023.
Organizer and Discussant, “Bayesian Case Studies in Comparative and International Politics.” APSA, Los Angeles,
Aug 31-Sept 3, 2023.
Organizer and Chair, “Development, Conflict & Cooperation in the Global South: Bayesian Case Studies.” APSA, Los
Angeles, Aug 31-Sept 3, 2023.
Roundtable participant, “Contemporary State Building: Elite Taxation and Public Safety in Latin America.” APSA, Los
Angeles, Aug 31-Sept 3, 2023.
Roundtable panel member, “Social Inquiry and Bayesian Inference: Author Meets Critics.” MPSA, Chicago, April 13-
15, 2023.
Organizer and discussant, “Qualitative Bayesian Inference in Practice: Case Studies in Comparative Politics and
International Relations.” MPSA, Chicago, April 13-15, 2023.
Invited participant, “Verifying Process Tracing Research Workshop,” Syracuse University. March 3, 2023.
Presenter, “Recasting the Debate on SARS-COV-2 Origins in Bayesian Terms.” POLMETH VI, Buenos Aires,
November 18-29, 2022.
Presenter, “Bayesian Reasoning and Interdisciplinary Knowledge Accumulation.” Toronto Conference on Earth
System Governance. October 20-21, 2022.
Roundtable member, “Author meets critics: Social Inquiry and Bayesian Reasoning.” APSA, Montreal. Sept. 15-17,
2022.
Invited participant, “Cambridge Workshop: Methodology of Political Science” (European Research Council),
Cambridge, June 6-7, 2022.
Presenter, “Recasting the Debate on COVID-19 Origins in Bayesian Terms: Rational inference in an era of political
polarization and motivated reasoning.” MPSA, Chicago, April 8, 2022.
Presenter, “Unifying Process-Tracing and Comparative Analysis: A Bayesian Framework.” APSA, Seattle. Sept. 30-
Oct. 3, 2021.
Chair, “Transboundary Governance and Policymaking,” APSA Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA. Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2021.
Invited participant, Roundtable on Qualitative Methods, Uruguayan Association of Political Science, Montevideo. Aug.
4, 2021.
Discussant, “Comparative Politics of Climate Change.” APSA, San Francisco, Sept. 10-13, 2020.
Presenter, “Rethinking Van Evera’s Tests in a Probabilistic Framework.” APSA, San Francisco, Sept. 10-13, 2020.
Non-presenting co-author, “How We Learn from both Observational and Experimental Research.” APSA, San
Francisco, Sept. 10-13, 2020.
Roundtable organizer and participant, “Practitioner Reflections on Bayesian Reasoning for Qualitative Research.”
APSA, San Francisco, Sept. 10-13, 2020.
Invited Talks
“Qualitative Bayesian Reasoning for Climate Studies.”
Environmental Politics and Governance (EPG) Online Seminar. Oct. 26, 2023.
University of California, Berkeley, Energy & Resources Group. Sept. 7, 2023.
“Recasting the Debate on SARS-CoV-2 Origins in Bayesian Terms.”
University of California, San Diego, 21st Century China Center, April 21, 2023.
University of Washington, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences. Nov. 9, 2022.
Temple University, Dept. of Political Science. October 24, 2022.
University of Texas, Austin, Comparative Politics Seminar. Oct. 10, 2022.
University of California, Merced, Dept. of Cognitive and Information Sciences. Mind, Technology, and Society
Seminar, Sept. 12, 2022.
Harvard University, Dept. of Government. Applied Statistics Workshop. April 27, 2022.
University of Maryland, College Park, Dept. of Government and Politics. April 13, 2022.
University of British Colombia, Dept. of Political Science. October 20, 2021.
Social Inquiry and Bayesian Inference and Qualitative Bayesian Reasoning
Yonsei University, South Korea, Dept. of Political Science. Feb. 15-16, 2024.
European University Institute, Florence. May 17, 2023.
University of Notre Dame, Kellogg Institute. Nov. 29, 2022.
Cornell University, Dept. of Political Science. Nov. 10, 2022.
Norwegian Institute for International Affairs (NUPI). Oct. 11, 2022.
University of Michigan, Dept. of Political Science. Oct. 10, 2022 and Feb. 21, 2022.
Boston University, Dept. of Political Science. Sept. 27, 2023.
University of California, San Diego, Dept. of Political Science. Sept. 30, 2022, Oct. 1, 2021.
Tsinghua University, Beijing. April 20, 2022.
Princeton University, Dept. of Politics, Qualitative Research Colloquium. March 25, 2022.
George Washington, Dept. of Political Science. Nov. 19, 2021.
Oxford University, Dept. of Social Policy and Intervention. May 6, 2021.
Stanford University, Meta-Research Innovation Center. Sept. 27, 2019.
Yale University, Dept. of Political Science. Nov. 7, 2017.
Princeton University, Dept. of Politics, Qualitative Research Colloquium. Oct. 5, 2017.
Rutgers University. Dept. of Political Science. October 4, 2017.
Oxford University, Dept. of Political Science. February 7, 2017.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science. May 9, 2016.
“Analogs of Replication in Qualitative Research.”
University of California, San Diego, Dept. of Political Science. May 24, 2018.
Stanford University, Meta-Research Innovation Center, April 27, 2017.
Stanford University, Dept. of Political Science. April 27, 2017.
Professional Service
Editorial board member, Perspectives on Politics, 2025-2027.
Editorial board member, Strategies for Social Inquiry series, Cambridge University Press, 2024-present.
External editorial board member, Latin American Politics and Society, 2023-present.
Convener, Qualitative Bayesian Reasoning (QBR) Network and Workshop, 2021-present.
Brings together scholars applying Bayesian reasoning in their research. Aims to create a network, provide training and feedback, and raise the profile of Bayesianism in social science through online research workshops and virtual cafes.
Program Co-Chair, APSA Annual Meeting: Comparative Politics of Developing Countries, 2025.
APSA Qualitative and Multi-Method Research, Secretary/Treasurer, 2021-2025.
Tenure letter writer, 2023.
Program Co-Chair, REPAL (Red para el Estudio de la Economía Política de América Latina) Annual Meeting, 2022.
APSA Qualitative and Multi-Method Research, At Large Executive Committee Member.
APSA Qualitative and Multi-Method Research Section Nominating Committee, 2018.
APSA Comparative Politics Section Powell Mentoring Award Committee Chair, 2018.
APSA Qualitative Transparency Deliberations Working Group on Comparative Methods and Process Tracing. Invited
member, American Political Science Association, 2016-18.
International Center for Tax and Development, Sussex: Resource Allocation Group member and grant proposal
referee, 2011-2015.
Reviewer: American Political Science Review, Business and Politics, Cambridge University Press, Comparative Political Studies,
Comparative Politics, Development and Change, European Journal of Political Research, Evaluation, Governance, Industrial and Labor Relations Review, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Development Studies, Journal of East Asian Studies, Journal of Economic Inequality, Journal of European Public Policy, Journal of Latin American Studies, Journal of Politics in Latin America, Latin American Politics and Society, Latin American Research Review, Oxford University Press, Perspectives on Politics, Policy Studies Journal, Political Analysis, PS: Political Science & Politics, Review of International Political Economy, Sociological Methods and Research, Studies in Comparative International Development, World Development, World Politics.
Professional Memberships: American Political Science Association (APSA), Climate Social Science Network (CSSN),
Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA).
University and Department Service
Relate Member, Appointment Committees: Assistant Professor, Dept. of International Relations, 2024; Assistant
Professor, European Institute, 2023; Assistant Professor in International Political Economy, Dept. of International
Relations, 2021.
LSE Equality, Diversity and Inclusion Network representative, 2021-23.
Interim Director, Latin America and Caribbean Centre—LSE, 2022-23.
Co-convener, LSE CP/CPE seminar series (with Dept. of Government and European Institute), 2018-23.
Departmental committee member: Research Design and Dissertation in International Development, 2023-25.
Departmental representative to the Academic Board, 2019-20.
Co-convener, LSE International Development Dept. Research Seminar, 2016-17, 2019-20.
Teaching
LSE. “Comparative Political Economy and Development,” “Global Environmental Governance,” “Bayesian Reasoning
for Qualitative Social Science.” Post-graduate courses.
Statistical Horizons. “Bayesian Analysis for Qualitative Evidence.” 8 hr. online short course. Sept. 5-6, 2024.
Syracuse University, Institute for Qualitative and Multi-Method Research (IQMR). Process-tracing and Bayesian
reasoning module, 2016 through 2025.
Global School in Empirical Research Methods (GSERM). “Qualitative Bayesian Reasoning for Case Studies.” St.
Gallen, Switzerland. 25 hr. course. June 12-16, 2023; June 17-21 2024.
European University Institute. “Bayesian Reasoning for Qualitative Social Science.” Florence, Italy. 20 hr. workshop.
June 5-11, 2024.
Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. Two-day workshop on Bayesian Reasoning with applications to
intelligence and security. July 6-7, 2023.
FGV EAESP (Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo) Winter School,
“Bayesian reasoning for process tracing, comparative case studies, and multi-method research.” 30 hr. and 15 hr.
courses. July 10-21, 2023, July 11-15, 2022.
American Political Science Association. “Bayesian Reasoning and Process Tracing,” “Bayesian Reasoning for Comparative Case Studies,” 4 hr. short courses. Aug. 2017-2023.